Favorite Steve Ballmer Predictions
“Google’s not a real company. It’s a house of cards.”
- Court transcript, November 2004
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
- USA Today, April 2007
“We will make our products work out of the box.”
- Source and date unknown, but does it really matter?
“There will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
- Washington Post, June 2008
Ballmer may be a brilliant executive, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a prognosticator. But then, so do most who attempt to predict the future (ask me sometime about my string of incorrect predictions regarding the Democratic Primary).
That said, Ballmer’s predictions regarding the death of print are especially inane. Print was predicted to die after the creation of both radio and television. It’s still here.
Certainly, circulation has dropped for many print vehicles. And the movement of classified ads to services like Craigslist and Monster have removed some juicy revenue streams from the newspapers. But print is not going away. At least not within the next decade.
Newspapers, in particular, still have very attractive business models. Many have profit margins that online publications would love to have. And they have significant numbers of feet on the street, something the online-only publications are not likely to be able to field any time soon. Yes, they need to adjust, but those that take a long term approach are likely to do so.
And while computer screens have improved greatly, they still cause considerable eye strain with continual use. Especially the screens on smaller, mobile devices. As much as I love technology, I’d still rather sit out on the back porch with a print magazine, not a computer.
Lastly, with the number of boomers retiring in the next decade, it is not unreasonable to suppose that the demand for print media may actually increase, not decrease in the next decade.
